Fourth Turning Chronicle

Welcome to Fourth Turning Chronicle, a blog dedicated to exploring the cyclical nature of history and the transformative/crisis period we’re living in. If you’re unfamiliar with the concept, this blog draws heavily from the seminal work The Fourth Turning by William Strauss and Neil Howe. Published in 1997, their book lays out a powerful generational theory that history moves in cycles, each lasting around 80 to 100 years and composed of four distinct “turnings”: High, Awakening, Unraveling, and Crisis. See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss%E2%80%93Howe_generational_theory

According to Strauss and Howe, each cycle culminates in a Fourth Turning i.e. a “Crisis” — a time of upheaval, when old systems break down and new norms and structures are created to replace them resulting in a new era of stability. We’ve had 3 prior Crises: 1) Revolutionary War (1773–1794), 2) Civil War and Reconstruction (1860–1865), and 3) Great Depression and World War II (1929–1945). Strauss and Howe wrote in the 1990s that they expected a Fourth Turning in the 2010-2020s. Howe believes we’re in one now. https://www.amazon.com/Fourth-Turning-Here-Seasons-History-ebook/dp/B0BHTNV8HN?_encoding=UTF8&qid=1694393590&sr=8-1

Our current moment mirrors the conditions of past Fourth Turnings: political polarization, economic turbulence, social fragmentation, and global tensions. The US just elected Donald Trump to the Presidency yesterday and I expect the next few years to be the resolution of the Crisis.

Fourth Turning Chronicle will explore how this theory plays out today, connecting historical insights with modern events, analyzing generational roles, and reflecting on what might lie ahead. Whether it’s the state of our institutions, generational shifts, or transformative global events, we’ll navigate what it means to live through a period of profound crisis and renewal.

Stay tuned as we chronicle the defining era of our time.